Carnival redistributes supermarket visits in NRW
Carnival is one of the most commercially significant seasonal retail moments in Germany. In North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), widely regarded as the country’s carnival heartland, supermarkets compete intensely in the weeks leading up to Ash Wednesday, as households stock up on drinks, snacks and celebration essentials.
Using Accurat’s AI-powered mobility intelligence, we analysed supermarket visits in NRW during the four weeks leading up to Ash Wednesday (22 January – 18 February 2026). This campaign period was compared with the four weeks prior to isolate the impact of carnival-related supermarket campaigns.
The findings were available just two days after the measurement window closed — underlining the speed and precision of real-world behavioural data analysis.
The data shows a clear redistribution of visit share across the supermarket landscape during carnival.
What this means for grocery competition in NRW
Three structural insights stand out:
- The largest hard discounters — ALDI Nord, ALDI Sud and Lidl — lost visit share
- Netto Marken-Discount, Penny, REWE and Kaufland benefited from switching flows
- Loyalty structure remains a key factor in competitive resilience
Carnival in NRW acts as a measurable stress test for supermarket competition. By analysing behavioural visit data immediately after the campaign period ends, retailers gain rapid clarity on where competitive pressure intensified and how shopper redistribution unfolded.